Will Hutton on the European elections
Europe remains the Tory modernisers’ blind spot. David Cameron and William Hague must know the risk they are running. They know, or should know, that a referendum on the EU constitutional treaty once every member state has signed it, as is likely this autumn if the Irish vote yes in a second referendum, is a European suicide note; 26 other countries are not going to spend another three years ratifying another treaty amended to meet David Cameron’s and his party’s prejudices. They are condemned to tell Britain that while some cosmetic concessions may be made, essentially the body of the treaty must stand.
If the British hold a referendum and there is a no vote, then the consequence will be that Britain must withdraw from the EU. So either this is a one-off stunt which the party leadership knows it must retreat from once the treaty is signed off or a ploy it knows will lead to a yes or no vote on de-facto European Union membership within two years of winning next year’s election. Either way, it hardly inspires much confidence.
So these European parliamentary elections really matter. Ukip will do well. The Conservatives will do better than 2004, but not as well as they need to win a general election. Along with the BNP, the opinion polls suggest that more than 50% of the vote will go to anti-EU parties. I’m not sure the British know the consequence of their vote, but a dynamic is in train that will lead to our exit from the EU.
Will seems to think there is something wrong with that. I of course don’t think there is anything wrong with that.
They go do their thing, we go do ours.
As a pro-European, I don’t want this to happen, but I’ve begun to wonder whether it wouldn’t be better for Europe. Only living outside the EU as the sceptics want - creating a politically diminished Britain fit for hedge funds, tax-avoiders and asset-strippers - is likely to convince the British majority that the option is a disaster.
Meanwhile, the Europeans can deepen the EU, along the way empowering the European Parliament. When a Tory government leads an impoverished, embittered Britain back into the EU in 25 years’ time, reality will have imposed political maturity.
That’s not what I think will happen of course. Rather, that freed of the stifling weight of EU regulation (which even a Commissioner has stated causes a loss four times greater than the benefits of the Single Market), freed from the zollverein (which Patrick Minford has calculated would provide a 3% boost to our GDP), able to make our own laws to suit ourselves, we would thrive.
Over 25 years there would indeed be a significant difference between the EU bloc and the UK. The power of compounding would see to that. Consider simply trend growth rate. If our growth rate were 2.8% higher than the bloc’s, then in 25 years time we would be twice as rich as they are.
2.8% is pretty high as a differential though, but 1.4% isn’t. I could easily believe (in fact I already do) that membership of the EU, with those regulations, costs us 1,4% of potential growth each and every year. And if that burden were lifted from our economy then over that 25 year period our economy would grow by 50% more than that of the bloc. We would be 1 and a 1/2 times richer than they.
Of course, we don’t know the counter factual. But it sounds to me like an experiment worth having, worth doing. Let’s leave. Let’s see what happens. If we, as Iam sure we would, thrive, then great. If we don’t? Well there’s always the Hutton option.